Scenario tool EXAMPLE VALUES
Trucking cash flow simulator
A 10-truck fleet invoicing about $62,000 a week (all invented). Change how fast brokers pay and watch the next 13 weeks of cash. Keyboard: Tab to a slider, arrow keys to move it, PageUp and PageDown for bigger steps. Tab to the chart and use the arrow keys to read each week.
Invented inputs, simple model. Dollar figures are rounded to $1,000 and probabilities to 5% on purpose, so the page does not pretend to know more than it does.
How to read it
A range, not a prediction
The bands
The dark band is where half of the 400 simulated outcomes land each week. The lighter band is where eight in ten land. A wide band means the answer depends heavily on luck in who pays when.
The floor
The dashed line is a cash floor you choose. The percentage on the left card is the share of simulated outcomes that dipped below it at least once in 13 weeks, not the chance for any one week.
The base case
The thin line is the base. Move a slider and the scenario line moves against it. Changes smaller than $2,000 show as no change, so noise does not look like news.
How the model works
- Each week the fleet invoices an invented amount, split into small invoices that go to three invented brokers (A, B, C) who pay in different numbers of days on average.
- For every simulated outcome each invoice gets a random payment time around its broker's average. A share of invoices is delayed by extra days.
- Costs are an invented fuel and operating amount each week plus three lump sums you can switch on and off: a fuel-tax filing, an insurance installment and an equipment purchase. All three are invented.
- Factoring, if you switch it on, advances a share of each invoice two days after billing and charges a flat fee. The rates are assumptions, not quotes.
- The same 400 random draws are reused whenever you move a slider, so the line moves smoothly. The seed is fixed, so everyone sees the same base case.
What it leaves out
- Taxes, loan terms, seasonality, disputes, chargebacks and fuel-card float.
- Anything specific to your fleet. The inputs are invented.
- Payment behavior of any real broker. Brokers are A, B and C.
Diesel
The diesel price starts at the latest EIA weekly U.S. retail average in our dated snapshot, so the fuel line is anchored to a real number. It is a weekly national average, not what a fleet pays, and it is not live.
To run the same view on your own loads, request the free audit.
Questions
Why does slower broker pay hurt even when revenue is the same?
Because costs arrive on a schedule and invoices do not. A fleet that is profitable on paper can still run short of cash if its fuel is due this week and its money is due in six.
Is factoring shown as extra income?
No. It pulls cash forward and costs a fee. The tool labels it a one-time timing gain.
Can I export the numbers?
Yes, as a CSV of the weekly ranges. It is marked synthetic and rounded to the nearest $100.
Does anything I do here get sent anywhere?
No. The simulation runs in your browser.
Formula table
| Quantity | Formula | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Weekly cash | cash in - cash out | Cash in depends on each invoice's payment time. |
| Bands | 50% and 80% of 400 draws | Fixed seed, same result for everyone. |
| Below-floor share | outcomes under the floor at least once / 400 | Within 13 weeks. |
What this means for you
Read the band, not the line. If the lower edge touches your floor in some weeks, a single slow broker can turn a profitable month into a cash problem. The sliders show how much slower payment moves that edge.
Related tools
Related: 13-week cash flow guide, factoring vs quick pay.
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