Official data, decoded
Spot to pump: how far behind is the diesel price you pay?
Wholesale diesel and crude oil prices move first; pump prices follow. This page puts the EIA weekly spot price of ultra-low-sulfur diesel next to the U.S. retail price, shows how long the pump has taken to catch up since Feb 2016, and lets you turn a spot move into cents and dollars for your own gallons.
Weekly seriesEIA NY Harbor ULSD spot, WTI spot and U.S. retail dieselData as of the week of Oct 5, 2026 (retail) and Oct 2, 2026 (spot)Retrieved Oct 10, 2026, 05:30 UTCretrieved Oct 10, 2026
Read this first
This is a pattern in past data, not a forecast. Spot prices are for one harbor and retail prices are national averages, so they do not move together every week. The fit includes unusual years. Use it to understand the lag, and do not use it to decide when to fuel. Nominal dollars.
Turn a spot move into your cost
The numbers below come from one straight-line fit per horizon. See the table for the fit values.
Retail and spot, last 104 weeks
- U.S. retail diesel
- NY Harbor ULSD spot (prior Friday)
Correlation by weeks after
Bars: correlation r x 100 between the 4-week spot change and the retail change from the start of that window to the chosen week. Selected horizon in orange.
The spot change is prefilled with the latest 4-week change in this snapshot. Gallons per week is Example data.
Typical retail change from the start of the window
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- Typical miss, low end (cents)
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- Typical miss, high end (cents)
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- Your weekly fuel cost change
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- Over 52 weeks at that change
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Enter the spot change.
Formula: retail change = drift + slope x spot change, from a straight-line fit on the table below. Cents are rounded once. Not a forecast; nothing you type leaves this page.
The fit, horizon by horizon
Every value is computed from the snapshot. Slope above 100 would mean the pump rose by more than the spot did.
| Weeks after the 4-week window | Pairs | Retail cents per 1 cent of spot | Drift (cents) | Correlation r | Typical miss (cents) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 (same weeks) | 558 | 0.63 | 1.2 | 0.83 | 13.2 |
| 1 | 557 | 0.71 | 1.7 | 0.81 | 16.2 |
| 2 | 556 | 0.76 | 2.3 | 0.76 | 20.0 |
| 3 | 555 | 0.79 | 3.0 | 0.72 | 23.5 |
| 4 | 554 | 0.82 | 3.7 | 0.69 | 26.7 |
| 5 | 553 | 0.86 | 4.3 | 0.67 | 29.7 |
| 6 | 552 | 0.88 | 4.8 | 0.64 | 32.5 |
| 7 | 551 | 0.90 | 5.4 | 0.62 | 35.1 |
| 8 | 550 | 0.90 | 6.0 | 0.59 | 37.6 |
Retail cents per 1 cent of spot = slope x 100. Drift is the intercept: the average retail change when spot did not move, over the whole sample. Typical miss is the residual standard error of the fit.
Where the pump dollar goes, roughly
Latest week and the last 52 weeks, from the same snapshot.
| Component | Latest week | Average, last 52 weeks |
|---|---|---|
| Crude oil (WTI / 42) | $2.335 | $1.879 |
| Refining (spot diesel minus crude) | $2.536 | $1.500 |
| Distribution, margin and taxes (retail minus spot) | $1.328 | $1.351 |
| U.S. retail price | $6.199 | $4.730 |
Rough split. Different locations and weeks are mixed (WTI at Cushing, ULSD in New York Harbor, retail across the U.S.), so refining and the last component absorb those differences. EIA publishes its own breakdown.
The last 12 weeks
| Retail week (Monday) | U.S. retail | NY Harbor ULSD spot, prior Friday | Retail minus spot | WTI crude, per barrel | Spot change, 4 weeks | Retail change, 4 weeks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5, 2026 | $6.199 | $4.871 | $1.328 | $98.07 | +26.7 c | +23.2 c |
| Sep 28, 2026 | $6.382 | $4.955 | $1.427 | $93.57 | +69.3 c | +78.3 c |
| Sep 21, 2026 | $6.529 | $5.223 | $1.306 | $103.54 | +69.4 c | +87.7 c |
| Sep 14, 2026 | $6.285 | $4.928 | $1.357 | $99.08 | +62.4 c | +83.1 c |
| Sep 7, 2026 | $5.967 | $4.604 | $1.363 | $91.18 | +73.4 c | +71.0 c |
| Aug 31, 2026 | $5.599 | $4.262 | $1.337 | $84.62 | +4.5 c | +25.1 c |
| Aug 24, 2026 | $5.652 | $4.529 | $1.123 | $87.35 | +33.2 c | +33.9 c |
| Aug 17, 2026 | $5.454 | $4.304 | $1.150 | $84.05 | +29.2 c | +32.0 c |
| Aug 10, 2026 | $5.257 | $3.870 | $1.387 | $78.94 | +36.0 c | +46.1 c |
| Aug 3, 2026 | $5.348 | $4.217 | $1.131 | $84.51 | +96.4 c | +77.0 c |
| Jul 27, 2026 | $5.313 | $4.197 | $1.116 | $88.58 | +100.8 c | +64.5 c |
| Jul 20, 2026 | $5.134 | $4.012 | $1.122 | $80.77 | +81.6 c | +30.2 c |
Spot is the Friday before the retail Monday. Changes compare with 4 weeks earlier. Source: EIA open data API v2.
What it means for your fleet
- Watch wholesale before the pump. A spot move today has not fully reached the pump yet: on average about 63% of it showed up in the same four weeks and 90% by eight weeks later.
- Do not time purchases from this. The typical miss of 27 cents a gallon is larger than most weekly moves. A card discount or a better route is worth more.
- Use it to read surcharge disputes. A fuel surcharge keyed to a weekly retail price follows the pump with the same delay.
- Price your own gallons. Enter the gallons your fleet buys in the calculator to see what a spot move can mean in dollars per week.
- Keep the date next to every figure. The weekly series is revised and this page is a snapshot.
Questions
What is the spot price on this page?
It is the EIA weekly New York Harbor ultra-low-sulfur diesel spot price (series EER_EPD2DXL0_PF4_Y35NY_DPG), the wholesale price in one harbor. Retail diesel is a national average of pump prices. They are related, but one harbor is not the whole country, so the link is loose.
Can I use this to time my fuel purchases?
It is a description of the past, not a forecast. The fit uses 558 weeks from Feb 2016 to Oct 2026, including the 2020 to 2022 price shocks. The typical miss is 13 to 38 cents depending on the horizon, which is large next to a weekly move. Use it to see how quickly pump prices have followed wholesale prices, not to bet on the next week.
How were the lines fitted?
For every week t, x is the spot price at t minus its price 4 weeks earlier, and y is the U.S. retail price h weeks later minus the retail price 4 weeks before t. The fit is ordinary least squares of y on x for h from 0 to 8. Windows overlap, so the pairs are not independent. Everything is computed from the snapshot, so it can be reproduced.
Why is the retail minus spot gap so large?
It covers distribution, marketing margin and taxes, and it includes the difference between one wholesale harbor and the national retail average. The split on this page is a rough one: crude is the WTI price divided by 42 gallons per barrel, refining is spot diesel minus that, and the rest is retail minus spot. EIA publishes its own, more careful breakdown.
How current is this?
Snapshot retrieved Oct 10, 2026. Latest retail week Oct 5, 2026, latest spot week Oct 2, 2026. EIA updates the weekly series on Mondays and Wednesdays; values for the latest week can be revised.
Related guides and tools
- Fuel surcharge check: verify the surcharge on one load
- Diesel prices: weekly EIA retail diesel by region
- Diesel seasonality: which months have been cheaper
- Diesel sensitivity: what a price move does to your margin
- Freight cost indices: prices, volume and jobs next to diesel
- Open data atlas: every source and its limits
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