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Census data, computed here

Trucking business births and deaths since 1978

Census counts every year how many trucking establishments with paid employees opened and closed. Over 46 years that is a record of booms, busts and the churn underneath them, and a way to size how many new competitors a market of your size sees in a year.

Annual, 1978 to 2023Census Business Dynamics Statistics, NAICS 484 Truck transportation, United StatesCalendar years 1978 to 2023Retrieved Oct 10, 2026, 12:08 UTCretrieved Oct 10, 2026

Read this first

BDS counts establishments (locations) that have paid employees. Owner-operators with no employees are not in it, and one company with several terminals counts several times. An exit is not always a failure: a sale, a merger or a move also shows as an exit. The national rates are context for how much churn there is, not a forecast for your lanes. The latest year is 2023.

In 2023 trucking opened 25,177 establishments with paid employees and closed 25,730, so the count fell by 553 to 145,006. It was the first year with more closings than openings since 2010. The entry rate peaked in 2022 at 23.0%, the highest in the 46 years of the series; the median year is 15.9% for entries and 14.5% for exits. A market of 200 carriers sees about 31.9 newcomers a year at the 15.9% median entry rate of the last ten years.

Opening and closing rates by year

Entry rate and exit rate as published, 1978 to 2023. When the entry line is above the exit line the count of establishments grows.

Entry rate and exit rate

10%15%20%25%198019902000201020202023
  • Entry rate
  • Exit rate

Openings minus closings

-5,00005,00010,00015,000197819881998200820182023

Establishments, per year. Bars below the line are years with more closings than openings.

How many newcomers does a market your size see?

Enter how many carriers you compete with. The form applies the median rates of the years you pick.

Pre-filled values are Example data. Replace them with your own.

Your market
Whole number: carriers on your lanes or in your area.
Median rates over these years.

New carriers in a market this size, per year

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Median entry rate
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Median exit rate
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Carriers leaving, per year
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Net change, per year
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Years in the span
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Enter the size of your market.

Formula: median rate = the middle yearly published rate over the years you pick (nearest rank). Per year = carriers x median rate / 100. Tenths of a carrier, half up. It applies a national figure to your market as a scale, not a forecast for your lanes. Nothing you type leaves this page.

Every year in the series

Click a heading to sort. Net = opened minus closed. Rates are the published percent.

Trucking establishments by year: opened, closed, rates and jobs
YearEstablishmentsOpenedClosedNetEntry rateExit rateJobs
2023145,00625,17725,730-55317.3%17.7%1,738,003
2022145,50231,86718,163+13,70423.0%13.1%1,724,885
2021131,73627,52914,900+12,62921.9%11.9%1,664,252
2020119,00418,74417,724+1,02015.8%15.0%1,624,361
2019117,87819,27613,858+5,41816.7%12.0%1,579,188
2018112,38917,55912,969+4,59015.9%11.8%1,507,808
2017107,76615,02814,356+67214.0%13.4%1,464,418
2016107,40916,28113,370+2,91115.4%12.6%1,467,399
2015104,58516,28811,647+4,64115.9%11.4%1,451,872
201499,92113,97612,442+1,53414.1%12.5%1,401,358
201398,31514,11512,778+1,33714.5%13.1%1,367,431
201296,88615,03412,188+2,84615.7%12.8%1,334,124
201194,35214,50213,106+1,39615.5%14.0%1,313,565
201093,21811,55814,639-3,08112.2%15.4%1,262,710
200996,29512,46317,313-4,85012.6%17.5%1,322,143
2008100,76913,86016,629-2,76913.6%16.3%1,423,532
2007103,79216,43515,057+1,37815.9%14.6%1,474,128
2006103,13417,50114,191+3,31017.2%14.0%1,529,401
200599,69315,70813,433+2,27515.9%13.6%1,479,526
200497,22115,00013,697+1,30315.5%14.2%1,447,654
200395,83213,96314,785-82214.5%15.4%1,412,795
200296,54313,96015,626-1,66614.3%16.0%1,433,853
200197,51114,56814,769-20114.9%15.1%1,475,066
200096,96414,80614,071+73515.3%14.6%1,492,176
199996,11215,73512,881+2,85416.6%13.6%1,450,241
199893,14214,85412,512+2,34216.2%13.6%1,386,540
199790,61114,74813,445+1,30316.4%14.9%1,325,901
199688,84314,29512,445+1,85016.3%14.2%1,283,209
199587,28015,19811,043+4,15517.8%13.0%1,260,694
199483,01413,72411,182+2,54216.8%13.7%1,182,663
199380,31712,85410,594+2,26016.2%13.4%1,134,070
199277,85111,72911,271+45815.1%14.5%1,105,782
199176,75211,23512,727-1,49214.5%16.4%1,081,645
199078,05812,15411,635+51915.6%15.0%1,133,618
198977,57212,54811,353+1,19516.3%14.7%1,126,061
198876,35213,20111,715+1,48617.5%15.5%1,099,191
198774,88213,74012,064+1,67618.6%16.3%1,040,513
198673,57212,70011,680+1,02017.4%16.0%1,103,371
198572,58112,54111,391+1,15017.4%15.8%1,090,618
198471,36912,3279,897+2,43017.6%14.1%1,051,080
198368,92710,78510,881-9615.6%15.8%957,390
198268,89610,55511,093-53815.3%16.0%996,586
198169,28110,53711,023-48615.2%15.9%1,026,898
198069,74311,32611,024+30216.3%15.8%1,064,370
197969,38912,6169,743+2,87318.6%14.3%1,122,780
197867,51712,36610,124+2,24218.6%15.2%1,039,918

Source: Census Business Dynamics Statistics, retrieved Oct 10, 2026. Establishments with paid employees, NAICS 484 truck transportation, United States. Jobs = employment of those establishments, as published.

What this number means

  • In the years when the entry rate ran above 15.9% and the exit rate below 14.5%, the number of locations grew fast. Newcomers bid for the same freight, so rate pressure from new capacity is a reasonable thing to watch.
  • A year with more closings than openings means capacity is leaving. It does not mean rates rose: that depends on freight volume and on how many trucks the leavers had.
  • The exit rate has a floor: even in strong years about one location in eight closes. Turnover among your competitors is normal, not a signal.

What to do about it

  • Ask how many of the carriers you bid against have opened in the last two years. Newer carriers often price low while they build cash, and some do not last.
  • If your market is the 200-carrier example, use the calculator to see how many new names to expect in a year, and keep your bid floor from your own cost per mile, not from theirs.
  • Check a new competitor's authority age and insurance on the carrier lookup before you match their price.

Questions

What is an establishment, and are owner-operators in these numbers?

An establishment is one physical location with paid employees. A one-truck owner-operator with no employees is not counted at all, and a company with three terminals is counted three times. BDS is about employer locations, so it understates the smallest carriers and says nothing about how many authorities FMCSA registered.

How are the entry and exit rates worked out?

Census divides the number of establishments that opened (or closed) in the year by the average of the establishment counts at the end of that year and the year before. The page shows the published rates, which match that rule to within a fraction of a point.

Does a closure mean the business failed?

No. An exit is an establishment that has no paid employees or no longer exists in the next year. A fleet that merged, moved, sold its terminal or dropped to owner-operators with no payroll also appears as an exit. The data cannot tell failure from a planned sale.

Why does the latest year look different from the run of recent years?

Openings were far above closings in 2021 and 2022 (see the table). In 2023 closings were higher than openings for the first time since 2010. One year is not a trend, and the series is revised when Census adds a new year.

How current is it?

BDS lags by about two years: the latest year is 2023. The snapshot was retrieved Oct 10, 2026. For this year's registrations see the page on new carrier registrations, which comes from FMCSA and is updated daily.

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