FRED data, computed here
Heavy-truck sales cycle since 1990: where it stands
Retail sales of heavy trucks swing from boom to bust and back. This page shows 441 months of that cycle, how the latest month compares, and where your own last purchase fell in it.
Monthly, snapshotFRED series HTRUCKSSAAR, heavy-truck retail sales (BEA)Months Jan 1990 to Sep 2026Retrieved Oct 10, 2026, 12:08 UTCretrieved Oct 10, 2026
Read this first
This is the pace of heavy-truck sales in the whole U.S., seasonally adjusted and expressed as an annual rate. It says how strong demand for trucks is, not what a truck costs, and it cannot say when the cycle will turn. The latest month may be revised. This product uses the FRED API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
The cycle, month by month
Heavy-truck retail sales, thousands of units at a seasonally adjusted annual rate. The dashed line is the median month.
Monthly sales rate
Yearly average, last 15 years
Average of the monthly rates in the year, thousands. The latest year is a part year.
Where did your last purchase fall in the cycle?
Pick the year and month you bought. The form places that month in the range of all months since 1990.
Pre-filled values are Example data. Replace them with your own.
Heavy-truck sales rate in that month
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- Share of months since 1990 at or below it
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- Where that month sat
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- Against the latest month (Sep 2026)
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- Time since that month
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- Months with a higher rate
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Pick a month.
Formula: share at or below = months with a sales rate at or below that month x 100 / all months in the data, whole percent, half up. Against latest = (that month - latest) x 1,000 / latest, in tenths of a percent. Top quarter = 75 or above, bottom quarter = 25 or below. Sales rates are in thousands of units a year, seasonally adjusted. Nothing you type leaves this page.
Every year since 1990
Click a heading to sort. Average = mean of the monthly rates in the year, in thousands of units. 2026 is a part year.
| Year | Average, thousands a year | Lowest month | Highest month | Months in data |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 404 | 365 (Mar) | 457 (Jun) | 9 |
| 2025 | 417 | 345 (Nov) | 471 (Jan) | 12 |
| 2024 | 482 | 458 (Jun) | 502 (Nov) | 12 |
| 2023 | 509 | 476 (Oct) | 549 (Apr) | 12 |
| 2022 | 476 | 440 (Jan) | 514 (Nov) | 12 |
| 2021 | 462 | 419 (Aug) | 507 (Jan) | 12 |
| 2020 | 407 | 299 (May) | 468 (Nov) | 12 |
| 2019 | 528 | 452 (Nov) | 583 (Jul) | 12 |
| 2018 | 486 | 430 (Jan) | 522 (Oct) | 12 |
| 2017 | 413 | 363 (Jan) | 452 (Nov) | 12 |
| 2016 | 402 | 348 (Oct) | 465 (Mar) | 12 |
| 2015 | 449 | 422 (Dec) | 491 (Jul) | 12 |
| 2014 | 406 | 365 (Jan) | 432 (Sep) | 12 |
| 2013 | 352 | 309 (Mar) | 375 (Jun) | 12 |
| 2012 | 346 | 316 (Oct) | 361 (Apr) | 12 |
| 2011 | 306 | 259 (Jan) | 342 (Dec) | 12 |
| 2010 | 217 | 204 (Apr) | 234 (Jul) | 12 |
| 2009 | 199 | 180 (May) | 224 (Nov) | 12 |
| 2008 | 298 | 242 (Dec) | 337 (Apr) | 12 |
| 2007 | 373 | 312 (Dec) | 494 (Jan) | 12 |
| 2006 | 545 | 509 (Jan) | 559 (Apr) | 12 |
| 2005 | 498 | 482 (Apr) | 527 (Jul) | 12 |
| 2004 | 429 | 391 (Jan) | 475 (Dec) | 12 |
| 2003 | 328 | 282 (Jan) | 366 (Nov) | 12 |
| 2002 | 322 | 273 (Dec) | 353 (May) | 12 |
| 2001 | 350 | 306 (Nov) | 401 (Jan) | 12 |
| 2000 | 461 | 375 (Nov) | 522 (Feb) | 12 |
| 1999 | 521 | 499 (Jan) | 548 (Nov) | 12 |
| 1998 | 425 | 389 (Jan) | 487 (Nov) | 12 |
| 1997 | 376 | 344 (Jun) | 415 (Dec) | 12 |
| 1996 | 357 | 320 (Nov) | 392 (Jun) | 12 |
| 1995 | 390 | 362 (Aug) | 438 (Jan) | 12 |
| 1994 | 354 | 326 (Feb) | 390 (Nov) | 12 |
| 1993 | 302 | 264 (Jan) | 343 (Nov) | 12 |
| 1992 | 248 | 224 (Jan) | 287 (Oct) | 12 |
| 1991 | 221 | 202 (Oct) | 238 (Dec) | 12 |
| 1990 | 278 | 256 (Dec) | 298 (Jan) | 12 |
Source: FRED, heavy-truck retail sales, retrieved Oct 10, 2026. Thousands of units at a seasonally adjusted annual rate. Underlying data: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
What this number means
- A sales rate in the top quarter of the range means many buyers were competing for trucks. A rate in the bottom quarter means few were buying.
- The series swung from 180 thousand to 583 thousand: the same fleet could have bought into very different markets within a few years.
- Sales are demand. A weak month can come with high truck prices if supply is also short, so check the price index before you read a low month as a bargain.
What to do about it
- Write down the month and the price of each truck you bought. The form shows whether you tend to buy near the top of the cycle.
- Before you replace a truck, compare the quote with the producer price index for trucks on the cost-line escalator, not with sales alone.
- If the sales rate is low and freight is also soft, protect cash first: a truck bought on stretched terms is the hardest to carry in a slow year.
Questions
What does the sales figure measure?
Heavy trucks here are those over 14,000 pounds gross vehicle weight, which includes straight trucks and tractors, new and sold to anyone. The monthly figure is a seasonally adjusted annual rate: what a year would add up to if that month's pace held. It is not a count of what was sold in the month.
Is a low month good or bad for me?
It depends on whether you buy or sell. Low sales mean fewer buyers, which usually follows weak freight or a high cost of money. It tells you where demand for new equipment stands, not what a truck costs: the producer price index for trucks is the place to read price.
Can I use the cycle to time a purchase?
The history shows how far the series swings, not when it turns. A purchase that is timed on sales alone ignores your cash flow, your lender's terms and your freight. Use the form to see where your last purchase fell in the range, and judge the next one on your own numbers.
Where does the series come from?
It is published by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis in its estimates for motor vehicles and carried by FRED, the data service of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. This page uses the FRED API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
How current is it?
The latest month in the snapshot is Sep 2026. The snapshot was retrieved Oct 10, 2026. The newest month can be revised in the next release.
Related guides and tools
- Lease vs buy: what a truck costs you to hold
- Cost-line escalator: truck, tire and parts price indexes
- Freight cost indices: prices, volume and jobs
- Freight volume softening check: the BTS freight index
- Lease vs buy checkpoints: questions to ask before you sign
- Intelligence hub: all open-data pages
See what your last 20 loads show.
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