EIA data, computed here
Diesel stocks vs pump price: what history shows
U.S. distillate stocks run above or below their usual level for the time of year. This page shows where they stand, region by region, and what the pump price did eight weeks after weeks with stocks in the same range.
Weekly, snapshotEIA weekly distillate fuel oil stocks and U.S. retail on-highway dieselStock week ending Friday Oct 2, 2026Retrieved Oct 10, 2026, 12:08 UTCretrieved Oct 10, 2026
Read this first
The price table is a record of what happened in past weeks, not a forecast and not a cause. Pump diesel follows crude oil and refinery runs more than any one measure; stocks are one piece of context. The average is for the same week of the five years before, so a year of unusual demand shifts it. The weeks in each band overlap in time and are not independent samples.
Where stocks stand
U.S. distillate stocks for the last two years against the average of the same week in the five years before, and the gap by region this week.
U.S. stocks and their average
- Stocks, million barrels
- Average, same week of five earlier years
Gap to average by region
Percent above or below the same-week average, Oct 2, 2026. PADD = Petroleum Administration for Defense District.
What a band has meant for your fuel bill
Pick a band and enter your weekly gallons. The form applies the median change in the pump price eight weeks later in past weeks with stocks in that band.
Pre-filled values are Example data. Replace them with your own.
Median pump price change eight weeks later, cents a gallon
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- Weeks in this band, since 2010
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- Middle half of outcomes, cents
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- Share of weeks the price rose
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- Median change on your gallons over eight weeks
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- At the 25th percentile
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- At the 75th percentile
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Enter your weekly gallons.
Formula: cost = gallons a week x 8 x change in mills / 1,000 (dollars; integer cents, half up). Change in mills = U.S. retail diesel eight weeks after the week with that stock band minus the price in the week after the stock week. Percentiles use the nearest rank. It is a record of past weeks, not a forecast, and says nothing about your own price. Nothing you type leaves this page.
The regions this week
Click a heading to sort. Stocks in million barrels; the band uses the U.S. rule of 5% either side of average for every region.
| Region | Stocks, million barrels | Average, same week of five earlier years | Gap to average | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. | 105.1 | 118.5 | -11.3% | Tight |
| East Coast (PADD 1) | 21.7 | 31.2 | -30.4% | Tight |
| Midwest (PADD 2) | 26.2 | 29.5 | -11.3% | Tight |
| Gulf Coast (PADD 3) | 43.9 | 42.5 | +3.2% | Normal |
| Rocky Mountain (PADD 4) | 3.5 | 3.5 | -1.3% | Normal |
| West Coast (PADD 5) | 9.9 | 11.8 | -15.7% | Tight |
Source: EIA weekly stocks, retrieved Oct 10, 2026. Stock week ending Oct 2, 2026. Gap = (stocks - average) x 100 / average.
What the pump price did, by stock band
Eight weeks after the week with the stock band, change in the U.S. average retail diesel price, cents a gallon, since 2010.
| Band of U.S. stocks | Weeks in sample | 25th percentile, cents | Median, cents | 75th percentile, cents | Share of weeks pump price rose |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tight: more than 5% below average | 462 | -16.3 | -4.5 | +8.9 | 37.9% |
| Normal: within 5% of average | 167 | -8.0 | +6.9 | +14.6 | 61.1% |
| Full: more than 5% above average | 235 | -3.1 | +4.1 | +18.1 | 64.7% |
Source: EIA, retrieved Oct 10, 2026. 864 weeks with a five-year average and a price eight weeks later. Bands: tight = more than 5% below average, full = more than 5% above. Percentiles by nearest rank.
What this number means
- Tight stocks have not gone with a higher pump price in this record: the median move eight weeks later was -4.5 cents after tight weeks, +6.9 after normal weeks and +4.1 after full weeks.
- The middle half of outcomes is wide: from -16.3 to +8.9 cents in the tight band. A median says what usually happened, not what will.
- Regions differ. A tight Gulf Coast and a full West Coast mean different things for a fleet that fuels in one place.
What to do about it
- Check which region you fuel in and read that row, not only the U.S. row.
- If you quote loads weeks ahead, pad the diesel line by the 75th percentile on the diesel budget buffer instead of the median.
- Make sure your fuel surcharge schedule moves with the weekly price, so a rise in the pump price passes to the customer.
Questions
What are distillate stocks?
Distillate fuel oil is the group of refined products that includes diesel and home heating oil. EIA counts the barrels held in tanks, at refineries and in pipelines each week. Stocks are one input to the price: when stocks are low, a supply shock moves price more because there is less to absorb it.
Does low stock cause a higher pump price?
The data cannot say. Pump diesel follows crude oil, refinery runs, exports and season more than any single measure. The table shows what the pump price did, historically, eight weeks after weeks in each stock band. It is a description of 864 weeks, not a rule, and a different year can look different.
How is "average" worked out?
For each week, the average of the same week of the year in the five years before, using the week number counted from the first of January in blocks of seven days. At least three of the five values are needed. The gap is the difference as a share of that average.
Why does the price table start in 2010?
The retail diesel series is used from 2005 and the five-year average needs five earlier years, so the first week with an average is in 2010. Weeks without a price eight weeks later, such as the most recent eight, are left out.
How current is it?
The stock week is Friday Oct 2, 2026 and the pump price is the weekly U.S. on-highway average; the snapshot was retrieved Oct 10, 2026. EIA revises its weekly data now and then.
Related guides and tools
- Diesel prices: the weekly pump price by region
- Diesel seasonality: which months run high
- Diesel budget buffer: how many cents to pad a quote
- Spot to pump lag: how the wholesale price reaches the pump
- Fuel surcharge check: is your surcharge covering the move
- Intelligence hub: all open-data pages
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