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Freight volume index: is your lane market softening?

The Bureau of Transportation Statistics publishes one national index of freight moved each month. This page reads the latest 3 months against the 3 before and the last 12, labels the trend Cooling, Mixed or Firming, shows how that label has done since 2019 and lets you put your own last 8 weeks next to it.

Monthly seriesBTS Transportation Services Index, freight, seasonally adjusted, since Jan 2019Data through Jul 2026 (91 months in this snapshot)Retrieved Oct 10, 2026, 06:59 UTCretrieved Oct 10, 2026

Read this first

The index counts the volume of freight services performed across the country. It is not a rate index, not a load-board measure and not a lane forecast. The Cooling, Mixed and Firming labels come from a plain rule described below and were not tested as a forecast. Your lane is one small part of the national figure.

In Jul 2026 the freight index stood at 135.7. Its 3-month average was 135.9 against 138.6 for the 3 months before (-1.9%), and the month itself was -2.0% on a year earlier. By the rule on this page that reads as Cooling. Since Dec 2019, months read as Cooling were followed by a lower index 3 months later in 8 of 27 cases (29.6%), against 44.2% for all labelled months.

The index and its trucking part

Freight TSI and the for-hire trucking component, index points, last 60 months.

110120130140Aug 2021Aug 2022Aug 2023Aug 2024Aug 2025Jul 2026
  • Freight TSI
  • For-hire trucking component

Both are seasonally adjusted. The scale is index points (2000 = 100).

Put your own lane next to it

Pick the month to read the index as of, then enter your loads and your average rate for the last 4 weeks and the 4 weeks before.

Pre-filled values are Example data. Replace them with your own.

Read the index as of
The newest month is pre-selected. Older months show how the hint looked then.
Your lane, loads
Whole number.
Whole number above zero.
Your lane, rate
Your own average.
Your own average.

Reading of the national index

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3-month average
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3 months before
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Change
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12-month average
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Month against a year earlier
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Your loads, change
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Your rate per mile, change
-

Pick a month.

Rule: Cooling when the latest 3-month average is below both the 3 months before and the 12-month average, Firming when above both, otherwise Mixed. Your lane is flagged when loads fall 5% or more or the rate falls 3% or more. Integer arithmetic. Nothing you type leaves this page.

The last 24 months

Click a column heading to sort. Averages are rounded to a tenth of an index point.

Freight TSI, for-hire trucking component and 3-month reading, last 24 months
MonthFreight TSIFor-hire trucking3-month averageVs prior 3 monthsReading
Aug 2024138.8114.5138.0+0.9%Firming
Sep 2024137.3112.9137.8+0.4%Firming
Oct 2024138.3114.0138.1+0.1%Firming
Nov 2024137.1113.2137.6-0.3%Mixed
Dec 2024137.4113.0137.6-0.1%Mixed
Jan 2025137.8113.1137.4-0.5%Mixed
Feb 2025136.8113.4137.3-0.2%Cooling
Mar 2025137.6113.5137.4-0.1%Cooling
Apr 2025137.5113.5137.3-0.1%Cooling
May 2025136.9113.3137.30.0%Mixed
Jun 2025137.0113.2137.1-0.2%Cooling
Jul 2025138.5113.9137.5+0.1%Mixed
Aug 2025138.9115.0138.1+0.6%Firming
Sep 2025138.0113.7138.5+1.0%Firming
Oct 2025136.7112.2137.9+0.3%Firming
Nov 2025137.2113.2137.3-0.6%Cooling
Dec 2025136.9113.1136.9-1.2%Cooling
Jan 2026136.3114.2136.8-0.8%Cooling
Feb 2026138.4115.8137.2-0.1%Cooling
Mar 2026139.3117.5138.0+0.8%Firming
Apr 2026138.2116.3138.6+1.3%Firming
May 2026135.3112.8137.6+0.3%Mixed
Jun 2026136.6114.4136.7-0.9%Cooling
Jul 2026135.7113.5135.9-1.9%Cooling

Source: BTS Transportation Services Index, retrieved Oct 10, 2026. The reading applies the rule above to that month and the months before it.

How the labels have done

For every month since Dec 2019 with at least 3 later months: was the index lower 3 months on than in that month?

Share of months where the freight index was lower 3 months later, by reading
Reading at the timeMonthsIndex lower 3 months laterShare
Cooling27829.6%
Mixed18633.3%
Firming322062.5%
All labelled months773444.2%

Source: BTS Transportation Services Index, retrieved Oct 10, 2026. A description of this data set only. It does not show that the label predicts anything.

What it means for your fleet

  • Treat the label as a prompt, not a call. A Cooling reading is a reason to look at your own lanes, not to cut a rate.
  • Check volume and rate together. A lane can lose loads while the rate holds, or the reverse. The form compares both with the national direction.
  • Look at your own mix. The index covers trucking, rail, water, pipelines and air. Your customers may sit in a part of the economy that is moving differently.
  • Write down what you saw. If a broker or shipper asks for a rate cut, your last 8 weeks of loads and rates are better evidence than a national index.
  • Re-read it monthly. The index is revised and one month can change the reading.

Questions

What is the Transportation Services Index?

The Bureau of Transportation Statistics combines monthly data from for-hire trucking, freight rail, inland waterways, pipelines and air freight into one seasonally adjusted index of freight services performed. A higher number means more freight moved, not higher prices. The for-hire trucking part is shown next to it.

How does the hint work?

It compares the average of the latest 3 months with the 3 months before it and with the average of the last 12 months. If the latest 3 months are below both, it says Cooling. If they are above both, it says Firming. Anything else is Mixed. It is a rule that describes the numbers, not a forecast.

Does a cooling index mean lower rates?

Not by itself. The index measures volume of freight moved, not what shippers pay, and it is a national figure. Your lane can behave differently from the country. Rates depend on capacity as well as volume, so a falling index and falling rates can move apart for months.

How well has the hint worked?

The second table shows it. For every month since the history starts, it checks whether the index was lower 3 months later. Compare the Cooling row with the All labelled months row: if they are close, the label told you little at that horizon.

How current is it?

The snapshot was retrieved Oct 10, 2026 and runs through Jul 2026. BTS revises recent months and a month can be missing until all its components are published. The retrieval date is shown with the data.

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