How the lane briefing is built: sources, formulas and limits

Diesel

• Each state is matched to the EIA price area it belongs to: New England, Central Atlantic, Lower Atlantic, Midwest, Gulf Coast, Rocky Mountain, West Coast except California, or California. Alaska and Hawaii use the West Coast except California series.
• Prices are weekly retail averages in mills (dollars times 1,000) for the last 52 weeks. The lane price each week is the average of the two ends, rounded half up.
• Typical weekly move is the mean absolute change from one week to the next. Where the latest sits is (latest minus low) divided by (high minus low), as a whole percent.

Weather

• Normals are NOAA 1991 to 2020 monthly averages at the airport-class station nearest each state's hub city, straight-line distance, in whole miles. The briefing prints the station and the distance.
• Prompt levels used in the checklist are our own planning thresholds, not safety limits: 3 or more days a month at or below 32 F, 1 or more at or below 20 F, 10 or more at or above 90 F, 1 or more at or above 100 F, 1 or more with 1 inch of snow, half a day or more with 3 inches, 3 or more days with half an inch of rain.
• Some stations have no snow or rain normals in the snapshot. The briefing says so instead of showing zero.

Storm episodes

• NOAA groups National Weather Service reports into episodes. We take one type group in one state and measure from the earliest start to the latest end, in whole hours, for events that started in 2021 to 2025.
• Median and 90th percentile use nearest rank: the value at position the ceiling of the percentile times the count, sorted ascending. The same method as the storm episode page.
• The stopped-truck scenario multiplies those hours by the hourly cost you type. It is a scale, not a forecast.

Border and ports

• BTS counts inbound truck crossings by port. For a state with crossings we show the top three ports and the state total for the latest 12 months. For other states we show the nearest crossing to the hub city and call it relevant only within 300 miles in a straight line.
• Census gives import value by port of entry: sea, air and land. We sum it by the state in the port's name. It is where the goods came in, not where they go. The checklist mentions a state's ports when it ranks in the top 15 by 12-month value.
• Month index: the calendar month summed over 2023 to 2025, divided by one twelfth of the three-year total, as a whole percent. 100 is an average month.

FMCSA rules

• Federal Register documents from the agency published in the 365 days up to the retrieval date, counted by type. Comment periods open and later effective dates are counted on the retrieval date. Counts only: no titles are interpreted.

Industry counts

• Census County Business Patterns, truck transportation (NAICS 484), employer establishments, employees and payroll; Nonemployer Statistics for businesses with no employees. Shares and ranks cover the 50 states and D.C.

Cost estimate

• Fuel = miles divided by miles per gallon, times the lane price. Trip = fuel plus miles times your other cost per mile. Integer maths, rounded half up, in mills and cents.
• Route miles come from a truck-routing snapshot between 49 hub cities, one per state. They are not door to door and not a commercial routing product. Type your own miles to override.